Uddødende zombier
11. jun 2006 21:02, fremtidsblog
Jeg er faldet over en liste over zombier på Instituttet for Fremtidsforsknings (CIFS) hjemmeside (http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?lng=1&categoryid=2), som jeg synes fortjener et par kommentarer.
Zombierne er udødende produkter og begreber der ifølge CIFS bud vil forsvinde indenfor de næste ca. 15 år. Når man på denne måde fokuserer på hvad der forsvinder, er det fordi disse ting på en måde uigenkaldelig bliver væk, og således udgør de en større ændring i vores tilværelse end de ting der kommer i stedet for, som man i større eller mindre grad kan til- eller fravælge. I artiklen bruges eksempelet telefonbokse. De er snart historie, og der er ikke andet at gøre end at affinde sig med det. De er blevet erstattet af mobiltelefoner, som vi (i hvert fald til en vis grad) kan til- eller fravælge efter behov. En anden grund til at fokusere på zombier kan, ifølge artiklen, være at ved at kigge på det der er ved at forlade os, kan vi åbne øjnene for nye muligheder.
En række af de produkter og begreber der er at finde på zombie-listen, er ting der vil forsvinde fordi der sker et opgør med dimensionerne tid og sted. Og netop tid og sted er jo noget der i den grad har været med til at sætte dagsorden i samfundet, og ændringer i en ændret opfattelse her, vil have vidtrækkende konsekvenser. Vi kan allerede nu frit vælge hvornår vi vil se TV-programmer, og mange offentlige ydelser kan klares via en computer, og mulighederne for hvilke tjenester man kan dække i det virtuelle rum bliver stadigt større. Og tænk bare på netshopping; det vinder stadig mere udbredelse. Hvilket jeg jo godt kan forstå, og kender godt fra mig selv. Med en travl hverdag med familie og job, er det noget nemmere at sætte sig foran computeren om aftenen i stedet for at stå i kø i forretninger sammen med alle de andre. Og når man så endelig skal ud at shoppe, skal butikkerne skulle byde på noget specielt, og skal kunne give en oplevelse ud over at "bare" sælge en vare. Medaljens bagside er så hvad der sker med byudviklingen. Men så langt ser den ikke ud til at lide nogen nød, og specialforretninger skyder frem - netop forretninger der kan tilbyde noget udover blot at sælge.
Dette er sådan set bare et lille udpluk af de zombier som jeg finder interessante. I arbejdssammenhæng vil der naturligvis være en række erhvervstitler der forsvinder. Dernæst står "lønmodtager" som en zombie. Jeg kan godt se at antallet af lønmodtagere vil blive reduceret kraftigt, men at de er en udødende race har jeg svært ved at forestille mig. CIFS kalder fremtidens medarbejder for Creative Man. En medarbejder der motiveres af at være kreativ og nytænkende, og som vægter udfoldelsesmuligheder i jobbet højest. Vi kan allerede nu se at denne form for medarbejdere vinder frem, og det er også denne form for kreative vidensarbejdere regeringen hele tiden minder os om er Danmarks konkurrenceparameter i udlandet, og som skal sikre vores overlevelse. Men jeg synes det er svært at forestille sig at dette bliver så udbredt som CIFS spår inden for en så kort tidsramme som de opererer med. Det ligger ikke til alle mennesker at være kreativ og innovativ, og nogle mennesker tror jeg stadig vil have det bedst med et mindre krævende arbejde. Men én ændring som forandringerne på arbejdsmarkedet helt sikkert fører med sig, er at det vil give udtrykket "at få sig et job" en ny mening. For eksempel skal man i dag når man skal vælge uddannelse undersøge beskæftigelsesmuligheder i den anden ende. (I øvrigt er også begrebet "færdiguddannet" en zombie.) Dette tror jeg vil blive unødvendigt, da fremtidens medarbejder i sjældnere grad vil være fastansat i en virksomhed, men i stedet arbejde på projektbasis eller som freelancer af en eller anden art. Og i og med den tidligere nævnte ophævelse af dimensionerne tid og sted, vil arbejdsopgavernes geografiske placering blive mindre vigtige. Så problemstillingen med at der eksempelvis er alt for mange ledige ingeniører i København, vil være historie, da man kan arbejde med en løsere tilknytning til flere forskellige arbejdsgivere, og ofte hvor som helst i verden. Værd at bemærke her er at janteloven også kandiderer til zombie-status, og et kendetegn ved fremtidens medarbejder er også at man ved at man kan noget, og derfor ikke vil være bange for at sætte nye projekter i gang. Det at have et sikkert og fast job bliver mindre vigtigt, og mange vil føle sig bundet i for stor grad. Behovet for udfordringer og følelse af at selv være herre over sin egen tilværelse vejer tungere end at få en fast månedsløn hver måned. Man skulle derfor mene at en konsekvanes af dette vil være at mindre fokus på materielle goder, da dette med at have en fast månedsindkomst bliver underordnet. Samtidigt kan vi se at det bliver stadigt dyrere at bo i de større byer, og vi ved at det er neop her denne type mennesker vil bosætte sig. Hvordan dette så kan hænge sammen kan jeg ikke umiddelbart nogen fornuftig forklaring på. Ud over at disse mennesker tager sig godt betalt for det arbejde de laver.
Og så kan jeg ikke lade være med at komme med et lille indspark i efterlønsdebatten; Begrebet pensionsalder er en zombie. I denne her individualiserede verden vil også være stor forskel på levealder. Afhængig af ens liv, kan man være nedslidt som 55-årig, eller man kan være i fyr og flamme og stadig aktiv på arbejdsmarkedet som 80-årig. På denne måde vil en fast alder for hvornår man kan gå på efterløn eller pension ikke være relevant, og hvis man ønsker at beholde den del af arbejdsstyrken der virkelig kan blive på arbejdsmarkedet noget længer, så skulle man måske overveje en mere kreativ og individuelt tilpasset løsning på hele efterløns- og pensionsspørgsmålet.
Et kig på zombielisten siger mig at vi overhovedet ikke er langsigtede og ambitiøse nok i vores planlægning af fremtiden. Dette gælder ikke mindst politikere, men også selvfølgelig også os andre. På den anden side er listen heller ikke nogen facit, og det kan være svært at have fantasi til at forestille sig hvordan fremtidens samfund vil se ud hvis disse zombier forsvinder. Det kan jo være det er listen der er for ambitiøs, men det tror jeg nu ikke. Før eller senere vil zombierne forsvinde - om det sker inden 15 år er uvist. Men problemstillingen er nok at disse ting og begreber har altid været der (i hvert fald for os der ikke er alt for gamle), og det er svært at forestille sig verden uden dem.
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